Could Asian teams be catching up to Europe at this World Cup?
Quick summary
Jonathan Wilson analyzes whether Asian national teams are closing the gap on European sides heading into the 2026 World Cup.
What happened
A Guardian editorial by Jonathan Wilson examining the trajectory of Asian football and whether teams from the AFC confederation are closing the competitive gap with traditional European powerhouses ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The piece likely discusses recent performances of Asian nations, the growth of domestic leagues in the region, and what it might mean for the balance of power at the upcoming tournament in North America.
Chance analysis
Trend pieces on continental competitiveness are useful context for international tournament predictions, particularly as several Asian teams (Japan, South Korea, Australia, Iran, Saudi Arabia) have shown they can compete with top European opposition. If Asian sides are genuinely improving, this affects expected goals/match outcomes in group-stage and knockout fixtures involving AFC teams against UEFA opposition, and increases upset potential in bracket predictions.
No immediate team-level impact, but the framing supports models giving Asian teams higher upset probability against European sides at the 2026 World Cup.
Account for improved competitiveness of Asian teams when modeling upset probability and group-stage xG differentials at the 2026 World Cup.