Does going first in a penalty shootout actually give teams an advantage?
Quick summary
A statistical analysis examining whether the team that takes the first penalty in a shootout has a historical advantage, questioning conventional wisdom ahead of the 2026 World Cup.
Full article
Attributed to original sourceThirteen of the past 15 shootouts at World Cups have been won by the team that went second
By Opta Analyst
After watching 120 minutes of football, you might not find observing a coin toss the most exciting dessert. Fans in the stadium care, though. Win a coin toss for a penalty shootout and you choose the end where they are taken – to much rejoicing from those behind the chosen goal. Another coin toss also allows the winner to choose whether to go first or second. But does that decision actually matter?
For years, the consensus was that going first in a shootout gives teams an advantage. Being able to take the lead and put scoreboard pressure on opponents surely has a mental benefit, and means they are more likely to face the dreaded “must-score” penalty. However, when Rubén Vargas tucked away the winning spot kick for Switzerland against Colombia in their last-16 tie , it continued a rather curious trend.
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What happened
The Guardian explores the widely held belief that the team shooting first in a penalty shootout holds a psychological and statistical edge. Drawing on historical data from major international tournaments, the analysis examines win rates for first and second shooters. Contrary to popular belief, the data suggests the advantage of going first may be smaller than assumed, or even non-existent in certain sample sizes, complicating the coin-toss strategy used by referees to determine kick order. The piece reframes a well-known football trope through an analytical lens.
Chance analysis
Penalty shootout strategy is a recurring tactical concern in knockout football, and the perceived advantage of shooting first influences captain decisions at the coin toss. This article challenges that assumption with empirical data, which is relevant for match prediction models that may bake in a 'first-shooter boost.' If the edge is minimal or negligible, prediction systems should not heavily weight kick order as a factor. The piece is evergreen analytical content rather than news, useful for long-term modelling rather than immediate match decisions.
No direct impact on teams or matches; reshapes understanding of shootout dynamics and may inform future tactical decisions at the coin toss.
Do not assume a meaningful statistical advantage for the team shooting first in penalty shootouts; weight kick order minimally in prediction models.